How will divided opposition fare against RPF in 2017?


Rwandan opposition leader Victoire Ingabire. Photo/File
By CORRESPONDENT The EastAfrican
Posted Saturday, February 22 2014 at 16:13
IN SUMMARY
Meetings bringing together Rwandan opposition groups in Europe, which
were organised by former prime minister Faustin Twagiramungu, were
marred by divisions, with some agreeing to attend while others
refusing to do so. Didas Gasana, an exiled Rwandan journalist and
political analyst, pointed out that Rwandan opposition parties' prime
political enemy is not President Paul Kagame or the RPF, but one
another. Currently, there is no opposition politician in or outside
the country who can pose a major threat to RPF in 2017, whether
President Kagame decides to step down or seeks re-election under an
amended constitution.
Rwanda's opposition parties have three years to stop wrangling and put
their house in order or stand no chance of competing with the ruling
Rwanda Patriotic Front in the 2017 presidential polls.
Last week, the Rwanda National Congress (RNC), one of the most
prominent of the opposition groups in exile, was rocked by the
resignation of one of its senior members, Dr Paulin Murayi and his
wife Winnie Kabuga, who quit and started their own party.
In addition, meetings bringing together Rwandan opposition groups in
Europe, which were organised by former prime minister Faustin
Twagiramungu, were marred by divisions, with some agreeing to attend
while others refusing to do so.
Mr Twagiramungu said he called the meetings in Brussels in a bid to
bring together the Rwandan opposition to form a united front to
discuss the way forward for the country.
"It is time the Rwandan government talked to all sides to ensure that
an ultimate solution for the political problems in Rwanda is arrived
at. If they are not ready to talk, we are set to use other means," Mr
Twagiramungu said in an interview.
In the series of meetings that took place on February 1 and 2 and
February 15, Mr Twagiramungu sought to persuade Rwandan opposition
groups to push for talks with Kigali.
The former prime minister runs the Rwanda Dream Initiative (RDI)
Rwanda Rwiza, which recently formed an alliance with the Democratic
Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), a rebel group made up of
Hutu militias accused of committing the Genocide against the Tutsi,
and a faction of PS Imberakuri.
Didas Gasana, an exiled Rwandan journalist and political analyst,
pointed out that Rwandan opposition parties' prime political enemy is
not President Paul Kagame or the RPF, but one another.
READ: Rwanda's real opposition: Now you don't see them, now you do
While the Rwanda National Congress had little participation in the
meetings, another party led by the incarcerated Victoire Ingabire, the
Union of Democratic Forces (FDU) Inkingi, was divided on whether to
attend or not.
A Europe-based faction of FDU Inkingi, led by Nkiko Nsengimana, pulled
out at the last minute but the other group led by the interim vice
president Boniface Twagirimana sent delegates.
Mr Twagirimana nominated Joseph Bukeye and Michel Niyibizi to
represent the party, which has witnessed internal wrangling ever since
Ms Ingabire was detained upon return to Rwanda in January 2010.
She was subsequently sentenced to 15 years in jail on charges of
genocide ideology and denial as well as conspiring to threaten state
security.
READ: Court hands Ingabire 15-year jail term
FDU Inkingi, like many other Rwandan opposition groups, has lost
ground and has failed to win over Rwandans back home and in the
diaspora.
On the other hand, RNC was shaken by the murder of Patrick Karegeya,
one of its founders, who was found dead in a hotel room in
Johannesburg, South Africa. The former head of external security was
an integral part of the opposition.
READ: Rwanda now dismisses murder of 'sworn enemy' Karegeya
The political organisation, formed by dissident army and government
officials, has lost steam since its formation in 2010. It had been
touted as the party that would pose the biggest threat to RPF's power
but over the past couple of years, the group has weakened.
Its more vocal founders, such as Dr Gerald Gahima, a former prosecutor
general in Rwanda, Dr Theoneste Rudasingwa, a former RPF secretary
general and Kayumba Nyamwasa, a former army chief of staff, have been
quiet of late.
Currently, there is no opposition politician in or outside the country
who can pose a major threat to RPF in 2017, whether President Kagame
decides to step down or seeks re-election under an amended
constitution.
Even Frank Habineza, the head of the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda
— the youngest recognised party in Rwanda — believes that it will not
be easy for any opposition group to take on RPF, let alone dislodge it
from power.
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SIBOMANA Jean Bosco
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